GOP Advantage Ticking Upward Again Democrats’ Mid-August Bump

Source: RedState

Tracking the generic ballot can sometimes be an indicator of just where the next election might be headed, and if a new poll dropped today is any indicator, it looks like Republicans are regaining the advantage.

A new NBC News poll released on Sunday shows Republicans are up 47-45 over Democrats when voters are asked who they would rather see in control of Congress. That 2-point advantage brings the GOP up 0.2 percent over Democrats in the RealClearPolitics rolling average, and it’s the first lead Republicans have taken over Democrats in a week.

The GOP’s numbers in the generic ballot started falling after August 8, the RCP charts show, indicating that the raid at Mar-a-Lago may have played some role in the fall. However, it’s worth noting that the Democrats’ numbers also started falling around that date and that they did not top the GOP’s numbers until a week later.

The RealClearPolitics Generic Congressional Ballot as of August 21, 2022.

Both parties seem to have hit their lowest point going into the weekend, but with the NBC News poll, it looks like the GOP might be on the rebound.

If the Mar-a-Lago raid played a part, then judging by those numbers, Americans just grew overall tired of both parties and their reactions to it. You’ll notice the raid itself was only in the news headlines for about a week, and then it was business as normal from there. The Democrats had a successful subsequent week in getting their climate initiative signed and the GOP spent the week complaining about it.

However, the attention span of the American voter only goes on so long before it’s back to the issues making families the most nervous: Inflation and the economy.

And with the Biden administration touting their new “climate bill” and ignoring inflation, voters appear to be losing hope that the Democrats will actually take the issue seriously. So, with the Democrats talking about electric vehicles and ignoring the issues that are directly in front of the voters, they are turning and heading back toward the GOP.

Of course, this is one poll. It will be interesting to see if this particular trend holds, but I think it will remain fairly constant. We’re also entering the time of year when votes really start getting baked in, and there isn’t much time left for the Democrats to alter course. They have their fundamental change in energy policy in place, consequences be damned, and they’re going to stick to it.

Notice how quiet Joe Manchin has become all of a sudden.

The overturning of Roe v. Wade did not create a permanent bump for Democrats. The raid at Mar-a-Lago didn’t create a permanent bump for the Democrats. The climate change bill didn’t create a permanent bump for the Democrats.

It’s not as though the Democrats are ignoring voters. They just realize the voters are going to come back to them, so they wanted to get one last major policy across the line before Republicans could put a stop to it. And you can see the voters are once again tired of it.

I think it’s pretty likely that the GOP’s numbers grow, and faster than the Democrats’ numbers would. Time will tell on that, but the Democrats have made it a point to be as out of touch as possible.