Live Election Night Results: Arizona, California, Oregon and Washington

Source: Hot Air

Tonight’s the big night and as the resident Californian I’ll be covering the results for several of the western states. So let’s dive right in by looking at some of the closely watched races in each state.


There are two big races to watch here. First up is the governor’s race where Republican Kari Lake is facing off against Democrat Katie Hobbs. Lake has been doing quite a job in the state, often taking on the media as much as her milquetoast opponent. That dynamic is at least partly Hobbs fault because she refused to debate Lake, probably fearing Lake would take her apart the same way she has a number of reporters. Despite the hue and cry from progressives around the country and in the media that Lake is the most dangerous politician in America, she is pretty clearly leading the race. FiveThirtyEight gives her a 68% chance of winning and RCP has her up by 3.5 points in its poll average.

The other big race to watch is the contest between Democratic Senator Mark Kelly and Republican challenger Blake Masters. Sen. Kelly seems to have outperformed Katie Hobbs and has been leading his race until very recently. But last week a Libertarian candidate dropped out and endorsed Masters and now the polls show a dead heat. FiveThirtyEight has Kelly still leading by 1.5 points while RCP has Masters up 0.3 points. It’s worth noting the trend of the FiveThirtyEight graph though. Since the start of October, Kelly’s numbers have been flat or even down slightly while Masters is clearly surging.

This is probably going to be a squeaker and if so may not be called until late. Polls close at 7pm local time.


There is a Senate race in California but it’s not competitive. Alex Padilla was appointed to replace Kamala Harris when she became Vice President and polls show him leading by more than 20 points.

There are some other races around the state worth watching. The one I’m watching with my fingers crossed is the LA race for mayor between Karen Bass and Rick Caruso. Caruso switched his party affiliation to Democrat earlier this year so, technically, a Democrat will win this race. But Bass is a progressive while Caruso is a former Republican and a real estate developer who has been campaigning on the issues of doing something about crime and homelessness.

Caruso has spent a lot of his own money on TV and radio ads and it appears to have worked. Recent polls show him within a few points of Bass. Caruso has also picked up some surprising endorsements from celebrities and industry leaders in LA who are fed up with the chaos in the streets. As I confessed a few days ago, I find it hard to believe a former Republican could win i LA but I would really love to see this happen as I think it would be good for the city.

The LA Sheriff’s race will also be interesting. Sheriff Alex Villanueva has been a constant foyle for progressive DA George Gascon. Villanueva is running for reelection against former Long Beach Police Chief Robert Luna.

I’m also watching a House race which is taking place right in my backyard. Rep. Katie Porter is a progressive rock star just one step down from AOC. Because she’s constantly on MSNBC she raised a tremendous amount of money (more than $20 million) for her House race, CA-47. She has blown through all of it on ads which were mostly focused on abortion over the past few months. Despite the incumbency advantage and the money advantage, polls show the race has been shifting toward GOP challenger Scott Baugh. Last week Cook Political Report officially labeled it a Toss-Up. FiveThirtyEight still has Porter favored (80-20) but this is another race I’d love to see hit by a red wave.

There are several more House races that could be close calls including CA-09, CA-13, CA-22 and CA-26. There’s more on those races here.

Polls in California close at 8pm local time.


Portland is still weird but when you get outside the city limits things change a bit. This year there are a couple of races to watch. First, Oregon’s 5th congressional district is a race between Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner and Republican businesswoman Lori Chavez-DeRemer. This race is considered a toss-up but FiveThirtyEight gives Chavez-DeRemer a slight edge (58-42).

Oregon’s 6th district is slightly bluer than the 5th but Republican Mike Erickson has a shot of defeating Democrat Andrea Salinas. Cook Political Report moved this race to a toss-up last month. FiveThirtyEight has Salinas with an 72% chance of winning but a few polls have shown him up substantially, so we’ll have to wait and see.

Finally, the Oregon Governor’s race is also a close contest.

Three women, all former legislators, are the top candidates in the race to become the next governor of the state, which hasn’t elected a Republican to the office in 40 years.

Democrat Tina Kotek, formerly the longest serving Oregon House speaker, is being challenged by Christine Drazan, a former leader of the Republican minority in the House. Several opinion polls showed the two statistically tied, which prompted President Joe Biden to come to Portland to boost Kotek’s chances.

FiveThirtyEight gives Democrat Tina Kotek a slight advantage (63-37) over Republican Christine Drazan thought just a few days ago they had it nearly an even split. This is probably going to be close but with a 3rd candidate in the race you never know what might happen.

Polls and drop boxes in Oregon close at 8 pm local time.


The Senate seat held by Patty Murray is the big prize in Washington. Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley has never led in a single poll of the race but the trend has been toward a smaller and smaller margin for Murray. The RCP average puts Murray up 3 points which is within the margin of error. FiveThirtyEight says Murray has a 92% chance of winning this one so any upset here would be a shock to a lot of people.

Polls in Washington close at 8 pm local time.

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