Source: Power Line
I am still kicking myself for having credited the Trafalgar polls of Minnesota and other states in the runup to this week’s midterm elections. I think we should account for our errors. I apologized to readers in “After last night” and I reiterate it here. I think we should acknowledge our errors and account for them. My mistake in this case was attributable to my understanding of Trafalgar’s recent record of accuracy.
My conclusion is that, as a famous man is said to have put it, it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future. I think that might be condensed in this case to the proposition that nobody knows anything.
In any event, the tweet below is the first in a thread looking at Trafalgar’s performance. At least on Twitter, where I have been following him, Trafalgar’s Robert Cahaly has rested on his right to remain silent since this past Tuesday.
How did Trafalgar do in 2022? Using their last poll released for each Senate race, they overestimated Republicans by 7.5% on average across 13 states.
— Logan Phillips (@LoganR2WH) November 12, 2022